Vantage Point Quarterly Briefing Q3 2026

Overview of JPM’s Guide to the Market and key themes we are monitoring for Q3.

 

By Chris Figaro, CFP®, CEPA®

Download Market Guide PDF

Key macroeconomic themes we are monitoring in Q3:

  • Fed policy in transition - The FOMC meets twice this quarter (July 28–29 and September 15–16), under newly seated Chair Kevin Warsh. Rates have held steady at 3.50%–3.75% since March, though the Fed's latest projections have shifted tone slightly. They are now leaning more toward a possible hike than a cut based on fed funds futures.
  • Q2 earnings season - Starting mid-July, the major focus will be if AI-related companies can continue beating elevated expectations, and whether the broader market's earnings strength (outside the largest tech names) keeps pace.
  • New public market entrants - A wave of high-profile lock-up expirations, including SpaceX and potentially OpenAI and Anthropic IPO, could add meaningful new float to the markets and prompt rebalancing across indexes and portfolios.
  • Geopolitical tensions - The ongoing effects of the Iran war continue to keep oil prices in the news along with inflation expectations. Chair Kevin Warsh will be monitoring this as part of their overall Inflation analysis.

Key personal finance themes we are monitoring in Q3:

  • Estimated tax payments due September 15 - confirm withholding and quarterly payments are on track before Q4 surprises hit
  • • Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCDs) ) - from those taking RMDs, this is a good window to plan QCDs before year-end RMD deadlines create time pressure
  • Stock concentration review - mid-year vesting has likely happened; check if any single position has drifted above target concentration
  • Roth conversion sizing - income picture is clearer by Q3, making it easier to size conversions before end of December 
  • Open enrollment prep - Q4 benefits elections start soon; now is a good time to review current insurance coverage gaps (health PPO vs HDHP, life, disability, umbrella) before renewal 

Slides that caught our attention from the Guides to the Market PDF Q3 2026:

  • Page 5 – S&P 500 valuation measures
    • The importance: Even with S&P at the highs (“P”), the P/E rate has been coming down which most likely means that earnings (“E”) have been getting better which is a good sign
  • Page 7 – Sources of earnings growth and profit margins
    • The importance: In addition to page 5, this shows the earnings growth expected over the coming years
  • Page 10 Magnificent 7: Performance, earnings and dispersion
    • The importance: The other 90% of the Equity Market is starting to add to overall index gains
  • Page 11 – AI-related industries: Performance and earnings growth
    • o The importance: Earnings growth continues in all sectors of AI, however Hyperscalers and Software related companies have underperformed. This is why Q2 earnings is a key theme we are watching
  • Page 17 – Annual returns and intra-year declines
    • o The importance: Volatility is a normal occurrence, the average intra year drop from the highs in the S&P 500 is roughly 14%. In 2025, we witnessed a 19% drawdown and ended up around 16% for the year. And this year we saw a 9% pullback and are currently at highs. It is important to have a liquidity strategy particularly in times of volatility so your portfolio can be on the offensive vs the defensive through market drawdowns.
  • ****Page 17 – Annual returns and intra-year declines
    • The importance: Volatility is a normal occurrence, the average intra year drop from the highs in the S&P 500 is roughly 14%. In 2025, we witnessed a 19% drawdown and ended up around 16% for the year. And this year we saw a 9% pullback and are currently at highs. It is important to have a liquidity strategy particularly in times of volatility so your portfolio can be on the offensive vs the defensive through market drawdowns.
  • Pages 24 - Artificial Intelligence: Hyperscaler investment
    • The importance: A dominant theme in 2025 and we believe this continues in 2026+ given the Capex Investment by hyperscalers and utilization across all businesses
  • Page 40 – Fixed Income Yields
    • The importance: Fixed Income continues to offer favorable yield for clients that need income vs growth
  • Page 54 – Infrastructure investment needs
    • The importance: Infrastructure buildout is a global need. It is a sector within Alternative Investments that could be a source for your capital depending on your liquidity timeframe
  • Page 59 – Time, diversification and the volatility of returns
    • The importance: This is always an important slide as it highlights the volatility of returns based on asset class and timeframe. A key chart to help us determine overall asset allocation
  • Page 65 – Single Stock volatility and equity market returns
    • The importance: Both this year and last even with overall Equities performing well, over 30% of the individual S&P companies were down 5% or more. A key reason why individual stock picking is not our core focus when allocating capital for long term goals

The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Steward Partners or its affiliates. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided, nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk including possible loss of principal.

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