Vantage Point Quarterly Briefing Q4 2026

Overview of JPM’s Guide to the Market and key themes we are monitoring for Q3.

 

By Chris Figaro, CFP®, CEPA®

Download Market Guide PDF

Key macroeconomic themes we are monitoring in Q4:

  • Rates and the Fed – The 10-year Treasury is about 5.3%, up from 4.2% at the start of the year. In September, the Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023. Its projections show PCE inflation at ~3.7% for 2026, easing to ~2.3% in 2027. How the Fed under Chair Warsh handles sticky inflation is the key story into year-end.
  • Q3 earnings season – 2026 S&P 500 earnings growth is expected to be about 32%. Even with the S&P near record highs, the forward P/E has come down to about 19x because earnings are growing faster than prices (see Page 5 – S&P 500 valuation measures). AI-related industries now make up roughly 53% of the S&P 500, so the focus is on whether these companies keep delivering on high expectations.
  • Midterm elections (November 3) – Expect to see some headline volatility. We do not recommend repositioning portfolios based on election outcomes alone.
  • Market breadth and concentration – The S&P 500 is near its record high, but the average stock is down about 5.8% since mid-August. The top 10 companies now make up about 41% of the index.

Key wealth management themes we are monitoring in Q4:

  • Year-end RMDs and QCDs – Complete RMDs by December 31. Qualified Charitable Distributions can satisfy your RMD while reducing taxable income.
  • Tax-loss harvesting and capital gains – With bond prices down as yields rose, there may be losses worth harvesting to offset gains. Also watch for year-end mutual fund capital gains distributions in taxable accounts.
  • Roth conversions – Must be completed by December 31 to count for 2026.
  • Charitable and gifting strategy – Consider annual exclusion gifts, 529 contributions and "bunching" donations through a donor-advised fund before year-end.
  • Open enrollment – Review health plan options (PPO vs. HDHP/HSA), life, disability and umbrella coverage, and confirm beneficiaries.
  • Q4 estimated taxes – The final 2026 estimated payment is due January 15, 2027.
  • Maxing out retirement contributions – The 2026 401(k) limit is $24,500, plus an $8,000 catch-up at age 50+ ($11,250 for ages 60–63). New for 2026: catch-up contributions for higher earners must be made as Roth.
  • Putting cash to work – Short-term Treasuries yield above 4%, and the broad bond market yields about 5.5%. Make sure cash balances are earning a competitive rate and consider short- or intermediate-term fixed income where appropriate. (see Page 39 – Fixed income yields)

The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Steward Partners or its affiliates. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Neither the information provided, nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk including possible loss of principal.

Asset Allocation and diversification do not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining financial markets.

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The Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 widely held, large-capitalization US stocks. An investment cannot be made directly in a market index.

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